Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.821978 0.963373 1.121731 1.312255 1.535327 1.788341 2.097267
2024-10-20 0.568495 0.745955 0.968058 1.266598 1.657808 2.153661 2.831097
2024-10-27 0.434241 0.617510 0.865759 1.226906 1.739766 2.443482 3.485411
2024-11-03 0.363741 0.552124 0.824207 1.246291 1.886149 2.822616 4.302991
2024-11-10 0.329530 0.529198 0.834012 1.333898 2.135770 3.376740 5.453039
2024-11-17 0.293070 0.494881 0.818560 1.376358 2.317404 3.848149 6.542492
2024-11-24 0.257524 0.455182 0.786759 1.384549 2.440464 4.237810 7.551133
2024-12-01 0.225451 0.415630 0.748147 1.373129 2.524881 4.569248 8.502483
2024-12-08 0.199628 0.382792 0.715671 1.366177 2.613451 4.915862 9.526368
2024-12-15 0.180589 0.359369 0.696347 1.379511 2.739342 5.344137 10.761077
2024-12-22 0.157067 0.323691 0.648746 1.331000 2.737853 5.528545 11.543141
2024-12-29 0.151901 0.323771 0.670351 1.422512 3.027239 6.319483 13.663833
2025-01-05 0.132977 0.293142 0.626990 1.376150 3.029856 6.538870 14.641609
2025-01-12 0.116596 0.265633 0.586508 1.330501 3.028474 6.752248 15.646501
2025-01-19 0.102821 0.241785 0.550427 1.288934 3.029324 6.969223 16.691026
2025-01-26 0.095351 0.231203 0.542173 1.309313 3.174313 7.528357 18.617006
2025-02-02 0.093390 0.233313 0.563146 1.401375 3.501915 8.555257 21.827557
2025-02-09 0.088470 0.227471 0.564524 1.445993 3.720367 9.352471 24.591018
2025-02-16 0.081951 0.216637 0.552260 1.454601 3.849434 9.947829 26.928681
2025-02-23 0.075052 0.203786 0.533138 1.442600 3.923026 10.412218 28.990008
2025-03-02 0.069099 0.192580 0.516696 1.435295 4.008047 10.918146 31.243725
2025-03-09 0.064680 0.184916 0.508521 1.449307 4.153494 11.605836 34.114711
2025-03-16 0.057997 0.169942 0.478614 1.398329 4.109133 11.767822 35.500281